The Nashville Baptist Association exists to help our churches be more faithful and fruitful for the glory of God and the good of our city. That mission requires honesty — with ourselves, with one another, and before God. This article is written not to alarm or shame, but because what is true, though sometimes difficult, is always more useful than what is comfortable but false. We believe God’s grace is more than sufficient for every challenge our churches face — but grace does not require us to look away from reality. It invites us to face it together.
The National Picture
The trends facing our churches are not unique to Nashville. According to Lifeway Research’s analysis of the 2024 Annual Church Profile, only 21% of SBC churches are currently growing, while 39% are plateaued and 40% are declining. Nearly 8 in 10 Southern Baptist churches are either stuck or shrinking. Overall SBC membership fell to 12.7 million in 2024 — the lowest since 1974 — marking the 18th consecutive year of decline. There are genuine bright spots: baptisms rose more than 10% in 2024, and churches founded since 2000 have averaged 12% membership growth. But the overall trajectory of the established church demands our honest attention.
One takeaway from these numbers? One of the best ways to learn from others in your local context is for Southern Baptist churches to be actively involved in their local association. The value is not to compare who is doing the best, but to face local and national challenges together. That is precisely what the NBA is calling its churches to do.
What We See in the NBA
The NBA is currently tracking 148 churches. Among those with a formally assessed growth status:
- 10 churches (6.8%) are Multiplying
- 38 churches (25.7%) are Growing
- 29 churches (19.6%) are Plateaued
- 31 churches (20.9%) are Declining
- 33 churches (22.3%) have Unknown status
At least 60 of our churches — 40.5% of the association — are confirmed as plateaued or declining, mirroring the national SBC average almost exactly. But the picture sharpens further when we account for the 33 churches currently listed as “Unknown.” Based on our internal review of these congregations — through pastoral conversations and associational observation — our best assessment is that the majority would likely fall within either the Plateaued or Declining categories as well. If that holds, the number of NBA churches facing significant health challenges may be closer to 93 — nearly two-thirds of our association.
We share this not to discourage, but because a church that does not know where it stands cannot take the steps needed to move forward. Only 63 of our 148 churches (43%) submitted a 2024 Annual Church Profile — we encourage every church to participate, as it is one of the simplest ways to contribute to the health of the whole.
Why the Plateau Is the Most Urgent Moment
Every church moves through seasons of growth, plateau, and decline. The plateau is often the most dangerous — not because things feel bad, but precisely because they don’t. A plateaued church rarely feels urgent. It can drift for years, gradually losing ground, without recognizing how much ground it has actually lost. Church revitalization is possible, but the earlier a church seeks honest assessment and intentional help, the greater the likelihood of genuine, lasting renewal. Waiting is rarely neutral.
“Decline is not inevitable. Renewal is possible by God’s grace when churches humbly seek Him and pursue biblical health with intentionality.”
The Opportunity: Praying and Thinking Together
The NBA does not view these numbers as a crisis to be managed. We view them as an invitation — to come alongside our plateaued and declining churches with prayer, honest conversation, and intentional support. One of the most powerful tools we offer is the intentional consultation process: a structured, prayerful journey of honest assessment and hopeful discernment, moving through exploration, examination, presentation of findings, and prayerful recommendation — all in partnership with local church leaders who know their congregation best.
This process is not about telling a church what to do. It is about coming alongside leaders to ask honest questions and discern together what faithful next steps look like. Throughout, prayer is not a preliminary step — it is the atmosphere in which every conversation happens. We believe spiritual renewal is the work of God, not the product of better strategy. But God often uses honest assessment and intentional action as the instruments of His grace.
If your church is plateaued, now is the time to act — before decline sets in more deeply. If your church is declining, you are not beyond hope and you are not alone. In either case, we are asking the same simple thing: say yes to a conversation. Reach out to the NBA, and let’s pray and think together about what God might be calling your church toward. No commitment required. No judgment attached. Just brothers in Christ, talking honestly about the health of the church we both love.
Nashville is a city that needs the local church. The gospel is still the power of God for salvation, and the NBA is committed to doing everything in our power to help our churches fulfill that calling — faithfully, courageously, and together.
To schedule a consultation conversation, contact the NBA office.
Nik Lingle (Pastor at Westwood Baptist Church – Nashville, TN)
Renewal Strategist
Nashville Baptist Association